Disturbing the Middle East market

Written by Apostolos Manthos

The more unpleasant and more worrisome developments that appear to be happening in the Middle East could send the market into a retracement, triggering a broader breakout, with the general index prematurely missing an inverse breakout scenario above the “W” pressure curve. A curve that has stopped five times since February 6 buyers' rush captures the corresponding local peaks.
But now with new developments and the general index recently correcting up to -4.85%, it rose +30% in a long run from 1105 points to 1437.55 units?
The most fundamental chart element of the movement during this difficult week is to see the behavior of the index above 1364 to 1350 points or -3.5% percentage drop from last Friday's close. We are talking about a decisive area where the long-term Fibonacci trend setter meets the 55-day exponential moving average, the recent local bottom and the horizontal support at 1350 units. Hence, maintaining this level will bring about a second thought about the market's ability to absorb the shocks of undesirable developments by creating a new base of buyers of 1350 units.

However, on the contrary, if the area in question becomes flat with significantly increased trading turnover, the index will take a strong downward slope below 1315 units and towards the 1290 to 1280 units or “hard” support zone. -11% was seen at 1438 units at the beginning of last March, however, the downward movement below puts us in serious trouble as it begins to cross the 50% Fibonacci of a strong upward movement. Last October it was 1272 units.
So if the climate in the Middle East deteriorates further, it would be good for the index to not go below 1300 units and declare its strong resistance and have a strong bulwark of large trade deals like 2 billion. Euros between the two largest groups PPC and Mytilene, TERNA Energy with Masdar of the complete privatization of the National Bank, as well as positive financial results for the first quarter of 2024 by Mytilene which will take place after the opening of the curtain on April 25.

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The banking index is notable for continuity as banks now weigh heavily in the market's overall movement. First we can see the indicator entering the Keltner channel which is currently crossing the 1160 area or -3.50% percentage distance from last week's close.

Hence, a strong trade turnover and a bypass of this channel below 1160 units on a daily basis will direct the light on a downward path towards the previous low of 1145 units and towards a strong support level of 1110 to 1090 units. The distance to lower chart support we mentioned here represents a -14% decline in percentage terms from last March's high of 1270 points.

Of course, to stabilize the situation without further dangerous losses, the bank code should not write values ​​below the zone of 1145 to 1135 units.

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