The dangers of abstinence – impressions and possible surprises

Eight post-Easter polls have recorded surprisingly consistent political connections ahead of the European elections. According to all of them, the ND is close to meeting or meeting its electoral target of 33% as a result of the increase in its mobilization and expanding campaign. SYRIZA moves to 15%-16% and takes second place, showing signs of dynamism, more collegiality and gathering new audiences, but widening the gap with PASOK. From 12% to 12.5%, the new Syriza could not create a threat dynamic.

The HELLENIC SOLUTION seems to be declining slightly, and the KKE is consistently very strong compared to last year. Everyone sees a 0.5%-1.5% difference between themselves, meaning a fight for 4th place. Although Freedom Sailing and Niki have shown some reduction problems, at least they seem to complete the seven parties participating in the reservation for now. Beyond that there are currently four parties that cannot be excluded from distribution and show the possibility of collecting important percentages. We refer to the New Left, the Democrats, the Voice of Reason and the 25th as the hardest. Three of them exceeded the 3% threshold of the vote estimate, and everyone understands that statistically the difference is between 2.8% and 3.2%. In reality it has little value in cash flow conditions.

However, we cannot fail to point out that measurements are unsafe due to two main factors that increase uncertainty:

First: Public interest in elections is low and this significantly increases the dimensions of voting. Since most abstainers do not respond to public opinion polls, polls cannot determine voting with certainty. However, there is an effort to capture some messages with continuous queries. In the latest OPINIONPOLL survey for Action 24, one in three respondents said they were not particularly interested in the European elections, and this is worrying news.

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At the same time, 20.7% said they did not vote. One in five are within five percent of non-voters, and this finding comes from respondents, with non-responders being the main source of abstinence. At the same time, it is worth noting that even among those who declare they will vote for a party, there is a segment that responds strongly and is likely to abstain. In the same survey, 10.4% of those who declared they would vote for ND or SYRIZA, 10.7% for KKE, 12.2% for PASOK, and 13.2% for HELLENIC SOLUTION answered this.

So we mention the risk of registration abstinence. Comparing the 58.69% turnout in the 2019 European elections to today is obviously wrong. At that time there was a popular demand for a change in regime and a desire to register this movement in the European elections, which were held at the same time.

Tens of thousands of candidates rallied citizens to their cause. However, climate predicts a far lower turnout than last year’s 53.74% voter turnout, and understandably the dimensions it takes and its mix will affect results at the ballot box significantly more than we’ve seen so far in polls.

Second: In surveys like OPINIONPOLL, 18% appears as a gray area, which creates an uncertainty. We are talking about a large area of ​​undecided territory and a simple proportional distribution of undecideds involves significant risk, especially in European elections. Don’t forget that European elections are always an electoral battle of loose votes, and this will at most be limited under the weight of the dilemmas raised. They do not and cannot have the character of national elections.

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So there is a blurred picture due to these two factors and therefore, it is better to control the party workers. Perhaps, the relationships or order of parties in levels one to five will not be radically altered. However, they can affect the percentage and create another impression. It is another matter, for example, to move towards the lower bound of the range of electoral efficiency values, e.g. 30%-31%, and SYRIZA upper limit, e.g. For example, if the first two parties show a trend toward the top, among others, all other parties will be pressured and some will drop out of the game.

However, it cannot be ruled out that, on the contrary, an increase in the percentage of minor parties may be observed. Also, it would be a matter of GREEK SOLUTION bearing 8.5%-9% pressure with K.KE at ND fifth. It would be different if six parties elected MEPs and nine or ten. All this and the exact relation of forces will be determined within these twenty days until June 9. All this will determine a lot about the dialogue that will open up between the parties after the elections, though NT and K. Mitsotakis’ supremacy is at least not deeply contested, and we can expect more intense debates. Center-left parties.

It is not easy to predict all this anymore. The next few days will be very interesting, in which the outcome will crystallize in its details. And it might be very interesting…

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